The average GTA home price just fell below one million dollars for the first time since 2021.
Welcome to this week’s Mortgage Minute. If you’re planning to buy, renew, or refinance in the Greater Toronto Area, here’s what you need to know.
Topic One: The Interest Rate Outlook
You should expect the Bank of Canada to stay parked and not make any changes to interest rates for the foreseeable future.
This brings a level of stability to long-term planning that we haven’t had over the past few years.
The pause comes as Canada’s economy officially stalled with zero percent growth in November and job losses hit Ontario’s manufacturing sector.
What this means: If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop significantly before making a move, that scenario is unlikely. The current rate environment—with the Bank of Canada at 2.25%—is what you’re working with for the next 12-18 months.
Topic Two: The Market Reset
January sales dropped over 19 percent compared to last year, giving buyers leverage we haven’t seen in a long time.
More inventory. Longer days on market. Motivated sellers.
However, the gap between salaries and prices is still wide.
In fact, 41 percent of first-time buyers now expect financial help from family just to bridge that gap.
What this means: We’re in a buyer’s market by the numbers, but affordability remains a real challenge. If you’re trying to enter the market without family support, the math is still difficult—even with improved negotiating power.
Topic Three: Strategic Renewals
If you are coming off a high-interest fixed term—perhaps you took a 3-year fixed rate in 2023—you are moving into a lower rate environment.
This is good news for your monthly payment.
But here’s where strategy matters: If you are also carrying high-interest credit cards or lines of credit, this is a prime window to consolidate that debt into your mortgage and improve your monthly cash flow.
What this means: Don’t just auto-renew your mortgage at the lower rate and call it a day. If you’re carrying consumer debt at 19-21%, consolidating that into your mortgage at 4-5% could free up hundreds of dollars per month.
The Bottom Line
The Toronto mortgage market has shifted into a holding pattern.
Rates are stable. Prices are down. Inventory is up. But affordability challenges remain.
Whether you want to verify your borrowing power for a new purchase or you’d like a strategic review of your current mortgage, reach out.
Call or text me at 249-480-1249. Let’s look at your numbers.
Simon Browning
Mortgage Agent Level 2
BRX Mortgage 13463
📞 249-480-1249
📩 Simon@humberbaymortgages.ca
🌐 humberbaymortgages.ca
Rates are stable. Prices are down. Inventory is up. But affordability challenges remain.
Whether you want to verify your borrowing power for a new purchase or you’d like a strategic review of your current mortgage, reach out.