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Weekly Mortgage Minute
The Economic Split: Why GDP is Up but Households are Feeling the Pinch
Mortgage Minute: November 28, 2025
This week’s economic data presents a confusing picture for many Canadians. On one hand, the headlines tell us the economy is rebounding. On the other, the data on household finances tells a story of increasing strain.
Here is the breakdown of what matters this week:
1. The “Hidden” Financial Stress
While employment remains relatively stable, household balance sheets are cracking under the pressure of high interest rates and inflation. New data shows that consumer insolvencies have risen 10.6% year-over-year.
More concerning is the data from Equifax, which shows a 14% jump in missed payments on non-mortgage debt (credit cards and auto loans). This suggests that many homeowners are prioritizing their mortgage payments at the expense of other bills. This is a precarious position as we head into the holiday season.
2. A Historic Low for GTA New Homes
The standoff between buyers and builders continues. New home sales in the GTA fell 29% in October compared to last year, marking a 10-year low. With inventory reaching record highs, the market is heavily tilted in favor of buyers who can afford to wait.
3. The Macro Contradiction
Despite these household challenges, Canada’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in Q3, beating economist forecasts. This growth was largely driven by government spending and housing investment, rather than consumer spending, which actually dropped per capita.
What This Means for Your Mortgage We are seeing a sharp divide in the economy. While the big-picture numbers are going up thanks to government spending, the reality for Canadian families is going down as debts pile up.
The resilience of the GDP number gives the Bank of Canada pause. While markets are still expecting rate cuts, a “strong” economy removes the urgency for a cut on December 10th.
If you are one of the many Canadians managing cash-flow stress right now, waiting for rates to drop might not be the best strategy. A strategic restructure of your debt (using your home equity to pay off high-interest unsecured debt) can often improve monthly cash flow significantly, regardless of where the overnight rate sits.
Reach out if you’d like to explore options.
249-480-1249
Simon@humberbaymortgages.ca
The Mortgage Blueprint:
The Economic Split: Why GDP is Up but Households are Feeling the Pinch
GDP is up 2.6%, but insolvencies are rising. What does this mixed signal mean for your mortgage? We break down why a December rate cut is off the table and what you need to do now.
Is the Rate Cut Party Over? Scotiabank Warnings & The Condo Crisis Author: Simon Browning, Mortgage Agent
While headline inflation cools to 2.2%, Scotiabank has issued a shock forecast: the rate-cut party might be over, and hikes could return in 2026. Plus, we break down the 60% spike in Toronto mortgage delinquencies and what the cancellation of deals at One Bloor West means for investors.
The $50,000 Trap: How to Avoid a Massive Mortgage Prepayment Penalty
A prepayment penalty is a fee a lender charges if you break your mortgage contract – move or refinance – before your term is over. A recent social media poll found people had paid from $3,000 to a staggering $50,000 in penalties.