The Bank of Canada Announces Wednesday – Here Is What to Expect
March inflation came in at 2.4%, up from 1.8% in February. Nearly all of that increase was driven by gas prices, which jumped over 21% in a single month as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices sharply higher. Core inflation – the measures the Bank of Canada weighs more carefully – held at 2.3% on the median and eased to 2.2% on the trimmed measure, a five-year low.
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% at Wednesday’s announcement, which means prime will stay at 4.45%. Governor Macklem has signaled he is prepared to look through the near-term spike, and economists are broadly aligned: without the oil shock, the discussion right now would be about rate cuts, not hikes. Financial markets lean toward a possible 25-basis-point move later in the year, but that is December’s question, not Wednesday’s.
For variable rate holders, Wednesday’s decision is not expected to change your payment. For anyone watching the rate environment more broadly, the underlying picture – soft labour market, muted core inflation, fragile housing – is still pointing in one direction. The oil shock has complicated the timeline.
Fixed Rates Have Been Volatile – Here Is Why
The five-year Government of Canada bond yield closed this week at 3.106%. That number matters because it is the benchmark lenders use to price five-year fixed mortgages. It has nothing to do with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, which governs variable rate products.
When the yield jumped sharply in March, fixed rates moved up with it. Since then, things have been unsettled. In the last two weeks, a couple of lenders have trimmed their fixed rates slightly – but the picture remains volatile, driven by global uncertainty and the Iran-related oil shock rather than anything domestic.
The takeaway is not that fixed rates are falling. It is that they are sensitive right now to events that have nothing to do with what the Bank of Canada does on Wednesday. Variable rate holders watch the BoC. Fixed rate shoppers need to watch the bond market. The two are not moving in sync at the moment, and that matters for anyone currently deciding between the two.
Toronto’s New Condo Market and What the HST Rebate Means Right Now
The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area recorded just 246 new condo sales in the first quarter of 2026 – a 35-year low, down 52% from the same period last year. There were no new project launches during the quarter, which has not happened in at least three decades. Completed unsold inventory sits at record levels.
The federal and Ontario governments have announced an HST rebate on qualifying new homes up to one million dollars, in effect from April 1, 2026 through March 31, 2027. The details on the federal portion are still being clarified – as of this week, specifics around eligibility, when it kicks in, and how retroactive it is on the federal side have not been fully confirmed. The Ontario portion is cleaner. If you are considering a new build, understanding exactly what applies to your situation is worth sorting out before you sign anything.
Pre-construction financing carries its own considerations regardless – lenders finance based on the appraised value at closing, not the price on the original agreement. In a market where new condo prices have come down from their peak, that gap is worth understanding before you commit.
Variable rate holders – Wednesday’s Bank of Canada decision is yours to watch. If you are comparing fixed and variable right now, the bond yield volatility is part of that story. And if you are looking at a new build in Toronto, the HST rebate is worth factoring into the numbers before you commit to anything.
Connect with me directly at 249-480-1249 or visit HumberBayMortgages.ca.
Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463 | 249-480-1249 | HumberBayMortgages.ca
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Sources: Canadian Mortgage Professional (April 2026), CMT News/Bloomberg (April 2026), Urbanation Q1 2026, Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada CPI March 2026
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