FIXED RATES MOVE HIGHER AT MULTIPLE LENDERS AS BOND YIELDS SPIKE
Multiple lenders raised their fixed mortgage rates this week, in some cases by 15 basis points or more. The move wasn’t driven by the Bank of Canada. Fixed rate pricing follows the bond market, and government bond yields spiked hard over the past several days. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield jumped to 3.669%, up from 3.218% just two weeks earlier. The 10-year yield hit 3.904%, its highest level this year. Both moves were driven by surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions and a broader global bond selloff.
When bond yields move this quickly, lenders reprice on short notice, and that’s exactly what’s happened this week.
What this means for your mortgage: if you’re comparing fixed rate options or coming up on a renewal, lenders are moving week to week right now. It’s worth locking in a rate hold sooner rather than later to protect your pricing while these shifts play out.
SURVEY: CANADIANS FEEL STEADY ON THEIR OWN FINANCES, LESS CONFIDENT ON HOME PRICES
A new Nanos Research survey, conducted for Bloomberg, shows a split in how Canadians are feeling heading into fall. Confidence in personal finances and job security is holding up, with most respondents reporting they feel secure in their jobs. But confidence in the broader economy and in home prices has weakened. Only about a third of respondents now expect home prices in their area to rise over the next six months, down sharply from a month earlier.
Real estate professionals surveyed separately echoed the sentiment, with two in five citing recession worries as the main reason buyers are staying on the sidelines right now.
What this means for your mortgage: buyer hesitation driven by economic uncertainty, rather than affordability itself, tends to keep markets cautious rather than triggering a sharp correction. If you’re financially ready to buy or refinance, the underlying qualifying math hasn’t shifted, sentiment has.
TORONTO CONDO CONSTRUCTION NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT
New condo construction in Toronto has nearly stopped. According to a new CMHC supply report, only 156 condo units broke ground citywide in the first half of 2026, compared to a ten-year average of roughly 7,000 units a year. High construction costs, difficult presale financing, and weak condo demand are behind the slowdown.
CMHC’s warning is that today’s softer market is masking a bigger problem. If building doesn’t pick back up, the city risks a much sharper supply shortage once buyer demand returns, which could put renewed upward pressure on prices down the road.
What this means for your mortgage: today’s construction slowdown doesn’t affect current buyers directly, but it’s a signal worth watching if you’re thinking about the medium-term outlook for condo pricing in Toronto.
WHERE THINGS STAND
If you’re comparing fixed rate options or coming up on a renewal, lenders are repricing week to week right now, so it’s worth locking in a rate hold sooner rather than later. If buyer confidence has you second-guessing timing, remember that sentiment and qualifying math are two different things, and if your situation has changed and you’re not sure your current mortgage still fits, reach out and we’ll take a look together.
Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.
Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463
Sources: Bank of Canada; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); Nanos Research/Bloomberg; Canadian Mortgage Professional; Canadian Mortgage Trends