NEARLY HALF OF RECENT RENEWERS NOW SPEND HALF THEIR BUDGET ON HOUSING
New survey data from Rates.ca and Leger shows nearly half of Canadian homeowners who renewed their mortgage since January 2025 are now spending 50 percent or more of their monthly budget on housing. Eighty-two percent of those whose rate changed at renewal saw their borrowing costs rise, and only 13 percent came out with a lower rate. Younger homeowners are feeling it hardest, with 90 percent seeing their rate increase at renewal.
The pressure is showing up elsewhere too. Canadian insolvencies jumped 9.4 percent in June, the highest level in nearly a year, with Ontario up 14 percent from last year. The share of Canadians using a mortgage broker has also climbed to 38 percent, up six points from last year, as more homeowners look for help navigating renewals.
What this means for your mortgage: if you have a renewal coming up in the next year, don’t wait for the letter to land. Start reviewing your options now, while there’s still time to plan around whatever the number turns out to be.
TORONTO POSTS LONGEST RESALE WINNING STREAK IN THREE YEARS, BUT RECOVERY STAYS UNEVEN
Toronto’s housing market posted its longest resale winning streak in three years in July, five straight months of gains, according to RBC Economics. The MLS Home Price Index also posted a second consecutive monthly increase.
But the recovery is far from complete, and it isn’t even. Resales remain more than 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels, and prices are still 4.6 percent below where they stood a year ago. The condo segment tells its own story: active condo inventory is actually down close to 20 percent from a year ago, but condo prices are still falling, down 7.4 percent year over year.
What this means for your mortgage: if you’re buying freehold, the market is genuinely firming up. If you’re buying or refinancing a condo, appraisal risk hasn’t gone away. Prices still haven’t caught up, even with supply tightening.
ECONOMISTS SPLIT ON WHETHER THE BANK OF CANADA HIKES OR HOLDS
The conversation around interest rates has shifted this week. It’s no longer just a question of whether the Bank of Canada cuts. Economists are now actively debating whether it could hike before year end, driven by rising oil prices and tariff pressure.
That view isn’t unanimous. Desjardins managing director Royce Mendes doesn’t expect any move until 2027, pointing to wage growth that’s still decelerating. Bond markets currently price almost no chance of a hike at the Bank’s next meeting on September 2.
What this means for your mortgage: don’t expect relief on your rate this year, and don’t bet on a drop either. The range of outcomes economists are debating has genuinely widened.
WHERE THINGS STAND
Variable rate holders, expect the Bank of Canada to hold on September 2, though the door to a hike later this year is no longer fully closed. Anyone with a renewal coming up, this week’s data is the clearest signal yet that the squeeze is compounding, look at your options early. Condo owners and buyers, appraisal risk remains real even as inventory tightens.
Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.
Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463
Sources: Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 11, 2026 – “Renewed but not relieved: Canada’s mortgage budget squeeze deepens”; CMT News, August 10, 2026 – “Canadian insolvencies jump 9.4% to highest level in nearly a year”; RBC Economics / Robert Hogue, August 10, 2026 – “Diverging trends across Canada’s housing markets in July”; Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 11, 2026 – “Is a Bank of Canada rate hike becoming more likely?”