CANADA ADDS 75,000 JOBS, MAKING A RATE CUT LESS LIKELY
Statistics Canada reported the economy added 75,000 jobs in July, far outpacing forecasts of roughly 15,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.4 percent.
A jobs report this strong gives the Bank of Canada little reason to cut. The overnight rate has been held at 2.25 percent for six consecutive decisions, and this data reinforces that stance heading into the next announcement on September 2.
What this means for your mortgage: if you’re on a variable rate or carrying a HELOC, don’t plan around a rate drop this year. Today’s rate is likely the rate you’ll be living with for a while yet.
GTA NEW LISTINGS FELL 18 PERCENT IN JULY WHILE SALES HELD STEADY
New listings across the GTA fell 17.8 percent year over year in July, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, while total sales dipped just 0.9 percent. Active listings also declined, down 12.1 percent. The average selling price still came in lower year over year, down 4.5 percent to just over $1 million.
With fewer homes coming onto the market but sales holding relatively steady, the balance is beginning to shift back toward sellers, even though pricing hasn’t caught up yet.
What this means for your mortgage: if you’re planning to buy this fall, tightening inventory could mean less room to negotiate on price than earlier in the year, even with rates unchanged.
MORTGAGE ARREARS HIT A DECADE HIGH, WITH ONTARIO NOW LEADING THE COUNTRY
The Canadian Bankers Association reported 14,061 bank mortgages were 90 days or more past due in May, the highest count in more than a decade, up 27.2 percent from a year earlier. Ontario’s delinquency rate has climbed to 0.23 percent, surpassing the national average for the first time since at least 2012.
This is squarely a renewal story. Pandemic-era buyers who locked in five-year fixed rates in 2021 are now renewing into materially higher payments, and that pressure is showing up most clearly here in Ontario.
What this means for your mortgage: if your renewal is coming up in the next year, don’t wait for the letter to land. Look at your numbers now, while there’s time to plan.
WHERE THINGS STAND
Variable rate holders, expect the Bank of Canada to stay parked at 2.25 percent on September 2. Anyone renewing this year, take a hard look at your numbers before signing, the arrears data shows real pressure building.
Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.
Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463
Sources: CTV News / The Canadian Press, August 7, 2026 – “Canada adds 75,000 jobs in July as unemployment rate ticks down”; Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 6, 2026 – “GTA listings fall as housing market tightens in July”; Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 4, 2026 – “Canada’s mortgage arrears near a decade high”