Mortgage Minute: August 15, 2025
Is the housing market recovering or is Toronto headed for a downturn? The data is telling two different stories this week. In our Mortgage Minute for Friday, August 15, 2025, we’re breaking down these conflicting signals. For anyone looking to buy, sell, or refinance in the GTA, understanding these forces is the key to making a smart decision.
A National Rebound Gains Steam
After a period of uncertainty, there are clear signs of life in the market. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, national home sales in July rose for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 6.6% compared to the same time last year. Much of this renewed activity is being driven by the Greater Toronto Area, where sales have jumped a remarkable 35.5% since March 2025. This indicates that pent-up demand from buyers who were previously on the sidelines is finally entering the market.
Warning Sign #1: The Reality of Toronto’s Condo Supply
While the overall sales numbers look positive, Toronto’s condo market is telling a different story. Condo prices across the city have fallen by 9.3% over the past year. This weakness is being driven by a massive increase in supply. Over 17,000 new condo units are scheduled to be completed in the last six months of 2025 alone, flooding the market with inventory. As a result, many potential buyers see this oversupply and are choosing to wait, believing that prices have further to fall before they bottom out.
Warning Sign #2: The Approaching “Renewal Cliff”
The second major challenge on the horizon is the wave of mortgage renewals set to take place between now and the end of 2026. Over two million Canadian mortgages will be up for renewal during this period, with most homeowners facing significantly higher interest rates than they secured during the pandemic. This “payment shock” could create further instability in the Toronto market, as it may force a percentage of homeowners to sell their properties, adding even more supply to an already saturated market.
What This Means For Your Mortgage Strategy
This week, it’s easy to get distracted by the positive national headlines. However, the real story for our city is the local pressure building from the condo supply glut and the coming wave of mortgage renewals. This isn’t a time for broad assumptions based on national trends; it’s a time to focus on the specific risks and opportunities that affect your personal financial situation here in Toronto.
Whether you are a first-time buyer eyeing the condo market or a current homeowner concerned about your renewal, a generic approach is not enough. A personalized strategy built on a clear understanding of these market forces is essential.
If you want to build a strategy that navigates these warning signs, let’s connect for a detailed, no-obligation review of your scenario.
Sources:
- “National home sales rise as long-awaited boost ‘seems to have finally arrived’: CREA,” Canadian Mortgage Trends, August 15, 2025
- “Canadian home sales rise again,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 15, 2025
- “New inventory, plunging demand could keep Toronto’s condo market in crisis mode,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 15, 2025
- “Toronto’s housing market unlikely to boom anytime soon despite brighter July,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 12, 2025
- “Canadian mortgage market picked up pace in Q1 as credit balances climbed,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 14, 2025
- “Residential Market Commentary – Waiting for more data,” First National Financial LP, August 11, 2025