Three things happened this week that matter for your mortgage. The Toronto housing correction reached a level that directly affects refinancing and equity decisions. A new survey revealed how anxious Canadian homeowners are about getting their renewal right. And a federal rebate that could put up to $50,000 back in first-time buyers’ pockets is now live – and largely flying under the radar.
The Toronto Correction – What It Means for Your Equity
Average GTA home prices are now down 24% from their 2022 peak – a drop from $1.33 million to just over a million dollars. Average condo prices have fallen from nearly $800,000 to around $625,000. Condo sales volume has been cut in half.
For homeowners, the mortgage implication is equity. If you purchased in 2022 or early 2023 at or near the peak, your equity position may look very different today than it did when you signed. That matters because equity is the foundation of your mortgage options – it determines whether you can refinance, access your home’s value for debt consolidation or renovations, or qualify for a move-up purchase.
If you haven’t had someone look at your current equity position recently, that conversation is worth having before you make any decisions about your mortgage. The numbers may have shifted more than you think.
Renewal Anxiety – 58% of Homeowners Are Worried About Making the Wrong Decision
A new RBC survey found that 58% of homeowners facing renewal within the next two years are worried about making the wrong decision. That number makes sense when you understand the scale of what’s happening right now.
Roughly 60% of all Canadian mortgages are renewing right now. About one quarter of those renewing borrowers are expected to face higher payments than they have today. That’s a significant portion of Canadian homeowners navigating a decision they may only make once every three to five years – under conditions most of them haven’t experienced before.
Last week I noted that payment shock at renewal has been less severe than many analysts predicted. That’s still true. But manageable payments and making the right decision are two different things. The question isn’t just whether you can afford the renewal. It’s whether the renewal you’re being offered is actually the best option available to you.
The renewal letter your lender sends you is not an instruction. It’s an opening offer. You have options – including switching lenders, adjusting your amortization, or restructuring how your payments work. Half of homeowners in that same RBC survey said they need a mortgage advisor to help them navigate their renewal. That’s exactly what I do. Don’t sign anything until you’ve had that conversation.
First-Time Buyers – The GST Rebate Most People Don’t Know About
If you’re a first-time buyer looking at new construction, there’s a federal rebate available right now that could put up to $50,000 back in your pocket. The GST rebate applies to qualifying new builds, and 85% of newly built homes are expected to qualify.
For most first-time buyers, this changes the down payment math in a meaningful way – reducing the effective purchase price and the amount you need to bring to the table at closing. If you’re considering new construction, this is worth understanding before you make any decisions.
Bank of Canada – Third Consecutive Hold
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% this week – the third consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. Prime rate remains at 4.45%. For a full breakdown of what the hold means and why the rate outlook is less certain than it appeared a few months ago, check out Wednesday’s post.
What This Means for You
If you purchased near the 2022 peak, get a current picture of your equity before making any mortgage decisions. If your renewal is coming up in the next twelve months, treat the letter from your lender as a starting point – not a conclusion. And if you’re a first-time buyer looking at new construction, the GST rebate changes the numbers in your favour.
Connect with me at 249-480-1249 and I’ll show you what this week’s news means for your specific situation.
Simon Browning
Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463
249-480-1249
Simon@humberbaymortgages.ca
humberbaymortgages.ca
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Rates and market conditions change frequently. Always consult a licensed mortgage professional before making decisions about your mortgage.
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Whether you’re renewing, buying, or just want to understand where you stand, I’m happy to talk it through. No cost. No pressure. Just clarity.