The GTA condo market just hit a 34-year low in sales volume. While many might see that as a reason to wait, the underlying data suggests that waiting too long might actually be the more expensive move.
Here is your Mortgage Minute for a very cold January 23rd, 2026.
The Historic Disconnect: Sales Plunge 95%
We’re seeing a historic disconnect right now in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area condo market.
New condo sales in the GTHA have plunged 95% compared to 2021 levels –dropping from the frenzied highs of the pandemic era to the lowest volume recorded since 1991.
In Toronto specifically, housing starts – meaning new construction actually beginning – dropped by 31% last year alone.
But here’s the number that should concern anyone planning to buy in the next 3-5 years:
28 major condo projects were cancelled in 2025.
That’s thousands of units that were supposed to come to market between now and 2029 that simply won’t exist.
The Supply Hole
This wave of cancellations creates what economists are calling a massive supply “hole” for the end of the decade.
Here’s what that means:
By 2029, there will be virtually zero new condo completions hitting the market to meet demand.
We’re not talking about a temporary slowdown in construction. We’re talking about a complete pipeline drought.
The projects that would normally be delivering units in 2028 and 2029 either:
- Were never started (because of today’s weak pre-sales)
- Were cancelled mid-development (28 projects in 2025 alone)
- Were converted to purpose-built rentals (removing them from the ownership market)
What this means: If you’re planning to buy a condo in the GTA in 2028 or 2029, you’ll be choosing from resale inventory only. There won’t be new construction options.
And when supply is constrained while demand exists, prices rise.
Bank of Canada: The Rate Stability Era
The Bank of Canada meets again next Wednesday, January 28th.
While December inflation “bumped” to 2.4% year-over-year, that increase was largely due to temporary tax holidays from 2024 ending. (Remember the federal GST holiday on restaurant meals and other goods? Those tax breaks ended, making year-over-year comparisons look higher.)
The core inflation measures the Bank actually watches – the ones that strip out volatile items like food and energy – are easing toward 2.5%.
The consensus among major bank economists: Hold at 2.25%. This will maintain the prime rate at 4.45%
We’ve moved out of the “rapid rate cut” phase that characterized 2024 and early 2025, and into what the Bank itself is calling a period of rate stability.
Translation: If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop significantly before buying or refinancing, you’re waiting for something that’s increasingly unlikely to happen in 2026.
The Strategic Question: Should You Wait?
Here’s the question I’m helping clients work through right now:
Should you wait for rates to potentially drop another 0.5% before buying?
It’s a reasonable question. After all, a half-point rate reduction would lower your monthly payment and save you thousands in interest over the life of your mortgage.
But here’s the math most people miss:
If you wait for that rate drop, you’ll likely be competing against a flood of other buyers who were also waiting.
That renewed competition drives prices up.
And in the GTA market, a small savings in your monthly interest rate often doesn’t make up for a significant jump in the purchase price once bidding wars return.
Let me show you with real numbers:
Scenario 1: Buy Now
- Purchase price: $700,000
- Rate: 4.5%
- Monthly payment: ~$3,900
Scenario 2: Wait 6 Months for Rate Drop
- Purchase price: $730,000 (5% increase from competition)
- Rate: 4.0%
- Monthly payment: ~$3,850
You “saved” $50/month in payment, but you paid $30,000 more for the property.
And you gave up 6 months of equity building while you waited.
The Balanced Market Advantage
Right now, in this balanced market, you have leverage to negotiate on:
Purchase price – Sellers have been sitting on the market for months. Many are motivated.
Closing timelines – You can structure closing dates that work for your financing and moving schedule.
Terms and conditions – Inspection periods, financing conditions, chattels and fixtures—all negotiable.
Repairs or upgrades – Sellers are more willing to make concessions to close deals.
This kind of buyer leverage hasn’t existed in the GTA for nearly a decade.
Between 2015 and 2022, buyers were writing offers with no conditions, waiving inspections, and bidding $100K+ over asking just to compete.
That’s not the market we’re in today.
Who This Strategy Is For
If you’re a business owner or professional thinking about buying a home or upsizing, your window of opportunity is in this current balanced market.
This strategy makes sense if you have:
- Stable employment or business income
- Solid down payment (at least 10-15% saved)
- Clear timeline to buy (planning to purchase in 2026)
- Ability to carry your mortgage payment at current rates
This is not about pressuring you to buy before you’re ready.
It’s about making an informed decision based on market realities, not emotions or wishful thinking about rate drops that may not materialize.
What You Should Do Now
If you’re thinking about buying or upsizing in 2026, here’s my advice:
1. Get pre-approved at today’s rates
Don’t base your planning on hypothetical future rate drops.
Understand what you can actually afford and carry at current rates (around 4.5% for a 5-year fixed).
2. Run the math on waiting
I’ll show you the real numbers:
- What happens if you buy now
- What happens if you wait 6 months for a potential 0.5% rate drop
- The break-even analysis on timing
3. Understand your leverage
This balanced market gives you negotiating power.
Know how to use it.
Ready to Make an Informed Decision?
If you’re thinking about buying or upsizing in 2026, text me at 249-480-1249.
I’ll show you:
- What you qualify for at today’s rates
- The real math on whether waiting makes sense for YOUR situation
- How to use current market leverage to your advantage
No pressure. No sales pitch.
Just clear information so you can make the right decision for your family and your finances.
Stay warm out there, and have a great weekend.
Ready to Make an Informed Decision?
I’ll show you:
- What you qualify for at today’s rates
- The real math on whether waiting makes sense for YOUR situation
- How to use current market leverage to your advantage
Clear information so you can make the right decision for your family and your finances.