Mortgage Minute – July 25, 2025
If you’re feeling confused about the direction of the Canadian housing market, you’re not alone. Recent news paints a conflicting picture of a market ‘rebound’ happening at the same time interest rate relief is being delayed. This week, we’re cutting through the noise to break down what’s really happening and what it means for your mortgage.
Fixed rates are rising and hopes for a cut to the variable rates have faded, pushing any relief for variable rate holders to at least October.
Why is variable-rate relief delayed? It comes down to a stubborn type of underlying inflation that the Bank of Canada watches closely. Even though the main inflation number looks good at 1.9%, this specific “core” measure has risen to 2.7%, making the Bank hesitant to cut its key rate.
A Confusing Market “Rebound” This rate uncertainty is happening during a confusing market ‘rebound.’ We’re seeing more sales month-over-month, with a 2.8% jump in June, but the total number of homes being sold in the GTA remains at historical lows. And even with more activity, the national average home price is actually down 1.3% from a year ago.
The Toronto Story is Different While the national picture is murky, some Toronto neighbourhoods are another story entirely. A recent report showed detached home sales in areas like South Parkdale and Roncesvalles surged by 56.5%.
Simon’s Perspective The takeaway is clear: fixed rates are rising now, while the timeline for variable-rate relief is getting longer. These are two very different situations that demand different strategies. In a market where the national news doesn’t match what’s happening on the ground in Toronto, a simple, clear plan for your specific mortgage is more important than ever.
What’s Your Next Move? In a market with this much uncertainty, a personalized strategy is everything. If you’d like to map out a clear plan for your mortgage—whether you’re buying, renewing, or refinancing—let’s schedule a no-obligation consultation to discuss your goals.
Sources:
- “Residential Market Commentary – Real estate rebound,” First National Financial LP, July 21, 2025.
- “The Morning Bru,” RMG Mortgages, July 25, 2025.
- “A bumpy renewal market continues – but brokers and borrowers are coping,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, July 21, 2025.
- “Canada home prices aren’t bouncing back anytime soon,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, July 23, 2025.
- “Canadian housing affordability worsens in June,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, July 23, 2025.
- “Big challenges remain for first-time homebuyers despite cooler national housing market,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, July 23, 2025.
- “Detached housing markets reignite in Toronto and Vancouver, REMAX reports,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, July 24, 2025.
- “CREA lowers 2025 housing market forecast,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, July 24, 2025.
- “Return-to-office mandates: An ominous sign for out-of-province homebuying?,” Canadian Mortgage Professional, July 24, 2025.
- “BoC says worst-case trade fears are fading, but economic confidence remains fragile,” Canadian Mortgage Trends, July 21, 2025.
- “Canada’s housing slump expected to extend into 2026 without U.S. trade deal, Oxford warns,” Canadian Mortgage Trends, July 22, 2025.
- “New home prices down for third straight month in June: StatCan,” Canadian Mortgage Trends, July 23, 2025.
- “Fixed-rate borrowers face up to 20% payment hikes at renewal, BoC warns,” Canadian Mortgage Trends, July 23, 2025.
- “CFIB foresees recession in Canada, with economic contractions in Q2 and Q3,” The Canadian Press, July 24, 2025.