CANADA LOSES OVER 68,000 JOBS AS THE BANK OF CANADA DECISION NEARS
Statistics Canada reported that employment fell by 68,300 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5 per cent from 6.4 per cent. The public sector accounted for the bulk of the losses, with education and health care and social assistance down by a combined 58,400 jobs. Manufacturing lost another 12,700. Total employment is now down 41,200 since December 2025, which erases all of the job growth Canada had seen so far this year.
The report lands ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision on October 28. The Bank is dealing with two problems that pull in opposite directions. Inflation was 3 per cent in August, above the Bank’s 2 per cent target, which is an argument for raising rates. A weakening job market is an argument for holding off, because higher rates slow the economy down further. Today’s report adds weight to that second argument without settling the question.
What this means for your mortgage: variable rates follow prime, which is currently 4.45 per cent. A quarter-point increase on October 28 would take prime to 4.70 per cent, and variable-rate payments, or the share of the payment going to interest, would follow. Fixed rates do not change for existing mortgages until renewal. Lenders also qualify borrowers on income, so employment stability is part of the picture, particularly for households in sectors where cuts are being reported.
GTA CONDO SALES FALL FASTER IN THE SUBURBS THAN IN THE CITY
TRREB reported 5,040 GTA home sales in September, down 9 per cent from a year ago. New listings fell 14.4 per cent to 16,500. The composite benchmark price fell 4.7 per cent to $917,600, and the average selling price fell 5.1 per cent to $1,006,409.
The pullback was uneven. In TRREB’s reporting, the 416 is the City of Toronto and the 905 is the surrounding regions. Condo apartment sales fell 12.4 per cent in the 905, compared with 5.5 per cent in the 416. Detached sales followed the same pattern, down 10.3 per cent in the 905 and 4.0 per cent in the 416. Average condo prices fell 6.1 per cent in the 416 and 12.0 per cent in the 905, bringing the GTA-wide condo average to $605,257, down 7.7 per cent from a year earlier.
What this means for your mortgage: a lower purchase price means a smaller loan, but in a falling market an appraisal can come in below the price you agreed to pay. When that happens, the lender bases the mortgage on the lower number, and the buyer is responsible for covering the difference. Knowing how your lender handles appraisals, and how much cash you have available if one comes in short, is part of planning a purchase in this kind of market.
BUYERS WEIGH COMPROMISES, INCLUDING 30-YEAR AMORTIZATIONS
REMAX Canada’s Fall 2026 Housing Market Outlook, which included a Leger survey of 1,532 adults conducted in July, found that 65 per cent of Canadians are willing to make compromises to buy a home. Sixty-three per cent said they would relocate, and 31 per cent would live farther from city centres. On the financial side, 41 per cent would cut discretionary spending, and 24 per cent said they would extend their mortgage amortization to 30 years to lower their monthly payment.
REMAX also reports that sales fell year over year in 81 per cent of the local markets it analyzed, and about 32 per cent of markets are now buyer-favourable, up from 15.2 per cent a year ago. That gives buyers more time to compare options and negotiate than they had in recent years.
What this means for your mortgage: the amortization is the total time over which a mortgage is paid off, separate from the term. A 30-year amortization lowers the monthly payment, but it means more interest paid overall and slower equity building. It is also worth knowing that choosing a 30-year amortization today does not lock you into paying over 30 years. It can be shortened later, typically through prepayments or higher payments, subject to your lender’s terms, once your budget allows. Whether a longer amortization makes sense depends on your budget and how long you plan to carry the mortgage, and it helps to look at total interest, not just the monthly payment.
WHERE THINGS STAND
If you have a variable rate, the October 28 decision matters directly. A hike would raise prime from 4.45 per cent to 4.70 per cent, and your payment would follow. If you have a fixed rate, nothing changes until you renew. If you’re buying with a 30-year amortization in mind, it’s worth looking at the total interest, not just the monthly payment.
Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.
Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463
Sources: CMT News / Bloomberg (October 9, 2026); Canadian Mortgage Professional (October 2, 6, 7 and 8, 2026); Statistics Canada; TRREB; REMAX Canada Fall 2026 Housing Market Outlook; Bank of Canada