Topic 1: The 2026 Rate Freeze
What Happened:
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% this week, which means the prime rate remains at 4.45%.
But here’s the headline: Major economists now expect the Bank to maintain this rate through the end of 2026.
What This Means for You:
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to “hit the floor” before making a move, that floor is likely already here.
We’ve transitioned from a rate-cutting cycle to a period of stability. The narrative for the past two years has been “wait for the next cut.” That strategy is now over.
Your Action Plan:
Stop timing the market for rate drops. Start planning for the current rate environment – because this is what you’re working with for the next 18+ months.
Whether you’re buying, refinancing, or renewing, your strategy needs to be built around 4-5% rates, not hopes of 3% rates returning.
Topic 2: Your Rent is Negotiable
What’s Happening:
For the first time in years, Toronto tenants have real negotiating power.
Rental rates across the GTA are down 5% year-over-year, and landlords are offering aggressive incentives to attract and retain tenants – including “New Year’s Specials” with up to three months of free rent.
What This Means for You:
If you’re currently renting while saving for a down payment, you have leverage right now.
Use the current market data to negotiate a lower monthly rent with your landlord. Even saving $200-300/month adds up to $2,400-3,600 annually – money that goes directly into your down payment fund.
Your Action Plan:
Research comparable units in your area using platforms like Rentals.ca or PadMapper. Approach your landlord with market data showing current rates. Many landlords would rather reduce rent slightly than risk a vacancy in this market.
Every dollar you save on rent today is a dollar toward owning your own home tomorrow.
Topic 3: The Appraisal Gap Crisis
What’s Happening:
I recently worked with a client whose pre-construction condo appraised for $100,000 less than her original purchase price.
This isn’t an isolated case. With GTA condo sales at a 34-year low and new home sales at a 45-year low, properties are appraising significantly below contract prices across the market.
What This Means for You:
If you’re scheduled to close on a pre-construction property in the coming months, you need to be prepared for the possibility that your property will appraise for less than what you agreed to pay.
When this happens, you face two options:
- Come up with additional cash to cover the gap
- Seek alternative financing (often at higher rates through B-lenders or private lenders)
Your Action Plan:
Don’t wait until the last minute. Get “lender-ready” now – meaning:
- Have your income fully verified and documented
- Know your exact debt obligations
- Understand your liquid cash position
- Calculate how much additional cash you could access if needed
The worst time to discover you have a $100K appraisal gap is 30 days before closing. The best time is 6 months before closing, when you still have options.
If you’re in this situation, text me at 249-480-1249. We need to review your file and create a contingency plan.
The Bottom Line
The Toronto real estate market has fundamentally shifted.
The old strategy: Wait for lower rates, then jump in.
The new reality: Rates are stable. Strategy matters more than timing.
Whether you’re:
- A first-time buyer wondering when to enter the market
- A homeowner considering refinancing to consolidate debt
- A pre-construction buyer facing a closing in 2026
- A renter trying to maximize your savings rate
…you need a strategy that works in the current environment, not the one you wish we had.
Want to discuss your specific situation?
Text or call me at 249-480-1249. Let’s talk about your strategy for 2026.