GTA HOME SALES FALL 7.9% IN OCTOBER

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported 5,603 home sales in the GTA in October, down 7.9% from a year earlier. The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%, and the MLS HPI Composite benchmark price is down 4.3% year over year. New listings fell 11.9% to 14,173, and active listings fell 10.0% to 25,098. That works out to 4.6 months of inventory.

By area, sales in the City of Toronto were 2,184 (down 6.3%) and sales in the rest of the GTA were 3,419 (down 8.9%). By property type, townhouse sales fell 11.0%, condo apartment sales fell 10.4%, semi-detached sales fell 8.1% and detached sales fell 4.4%. The average condo apartment price was $621,400 and the average detached price was $1,310,627. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up 1.2% from September.

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld said a Canada-U.S. trade deal could give GTA residents a clearer view of the economic outlook and help renew interest in home ownership heading into 2027. TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noted that lower selling prices have reduced the effect of higher interest rates on monthly mortgage payments.

What this means for your mortgage: A lower price lowers the mortgage needed for a given purchase, but a higher rate pushes the payment the other way. The monthly payment is the number to watch, not the price alone. Brokers are also noting that appraisals coming in below the purchase price remain a hurdle on some condo files, which can mean bringing more cash to closing.

FOREIGN BUYER BAN EXTENDED TO 2029, WITH AN EXEMPTION FOR NEW BUILDS

The federal budget extends the ban on non-resident purchases of residential property by two years, to January 1, 2029. It also adds a new exemption that allows foreign buyers to purchase newly constructed residential properties. The ban was first enacted in 2023, and polling cited in coverage of the budget indicates 76% public support. National Bank of Canada Chief Economist Stéphane Marion has criticized broader restrictions, asking how Canada can present itself as a standout investment destination while telling foreign buyers they cannot touch the residential market.

The government’s stated aim is to protect resale affordability for domestic buyers while directing international capital into new construction.

What this means for your mortgage: Nothing changes for domestic buyers’ qualification or rates. The new-build exemption matters most for Toronto presale condo projects, which need buyer commitments to reach the presale thresholds that lenders require for construction financing. A wider pool of eligible buyers can help projects reach those thresholds. Resale homes remain closed to foreign buyers.

WHERE THINGS STAND

Variable-rate holders are watching a December 9 decision that markets expect to be a hold. Fixed-rate holders and renewers are dealing with a slowing economy that is pulling in the opposite direction from rising yields. And GTA buyers are facing fewer listings and softer prices, which gives them more room to negotiate.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Canadian Mortgage Trends / Bloomberg, “Bank of Canada says fiscal policy isn’t stoking inflation yet,” November 3, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “Canada’s GDP stalls, clouding Bank of Canada’s December call,” October 30, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Trends / The Canadian Press, “Greater Toronto Area home sales down nearly 8% in October: real estate board,” November 4, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “GTA home sales stumble in October as buyers seek economic clarity,” November 4, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “Canadian government to extend – but loosen – foreign homebuyer ban,” November 5, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Trends / Bloomberg, “Federal budget relaxes foreign buyer ban, includes billions for housing,” November 5, 2026; Statistics Canada; Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

CMHC EXPECTS ONTARIO MORTGAGE ARREARS TO KEEP RISING INTO MID-2027

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) expects mortgage arrears in Ontario to keep rising until the middle of 2027, with the largest and most sustained increase of any province. Ontario’s arrears rate was 0.32 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 0.21 per cent a year earlier. That is about three in every thousand mortgages. A mortgage is considered in arrears when payments are 90 days or more behind.

CMHC says the pressure is concentrated in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area and southwestern Ontario, where trade tensions are weighing on auto manufacturing. It expects “persistent, above-average delinquency growth” in Toronto through late 2026 and into 2027. Weak housing conditions are also making it harder for stressed owners to sell or refinance their way out of difficulty.

CMHC’s deputy chief economist said Canada “is not facing a broad mortgage crisis,” and arrears remain below historical peaks. A report from bank economists found that mortgages making up roughly 5 to 6 per cent of the market saw payments jump more than 40 per cent in 2026. The same report expects renewal payment increases to ease from February 2027, and found that serious delinquencies on credit cards and lines of credit held by mortgage borrowers have levelled off. CMHC also says the largest renewal shock has likely passed.

What this means for your mortgage: Arrears in Ontario are still rare, but the direction is up, and the strain is showing first among borrowers who renew at higher rates, in a market where selling is harder. If you are renewing in the next year, the two numbers to have in front of you are your current rate and your renewal date.

THE BANK OF CANADA SEES A SUBDUED HOUSING MARKET THROUGH 2028

The Bank’s projections show residential real estate adding virtually nothing to economic growth through 2028. Its senior deputy governor called the housing outlook “subdued.” She said borrowing rates are weighing on the market and that this increase will add to that.

In September, the national average home price was down 1.6 per cent from a year earlier, to $666,538. National sales were down 7.7 per cent, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. The association now expects national sales to fall 5.2 per cent this year, pointing to higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty about how high variable rates will go.

What this means for your mortgage: Higher borrowing costs reduce the size of mortgage a given income supports, and the Bank does not expect housing to pick up soon. In a market with softer prices and higher rates, the monthly payment on a given purchase price is the number to work from, not the price alone. These are national figures and are not a read on any single Toronto neighbourhood.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you have a variable rate with a fixed payment, your payment stays the same, but more of it now goes to interest. If your payment moves with prime, it went up this week. If you have a fixed rate, nothing changes until renewal. If you’re renewing in the next year, know your current rate and your renewal date. Fixed rates have been rising since March, soon after the war with Iran began.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada, policy interest rate and key interest rate data; CMT News (Bloomberg), “Bank of Canada hikes to 2.5%, says more could be needed,” October 28, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “BoC hikes rates for the first time in over three years,” October 28, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “Here’s what Tiff Macklem said after the BoC’s rate hike,” October 28, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “The big question: How many more BoC rate hikes are ahead?” October 28, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “Prime rate hits 4.70% today as big banks act on BoC hike,” October 29, 2026; CMT News, “Ontario mortgage arrears expected to rise through mid-2027: CMHC,” October 27, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “CMHC sees Ontario mortgage arrears worsening well into 2027,” October 27, 2026; Canadian Mortgage Professional, “Canadian household credit defies renewal shock, CIBC finds,” October 28, 2026; CMT News, “Mortgage arrears to rise further, but losses manageable: CIBC,” October 27, 2026; CMT News (The Canadian Press), “BoC warns of ‘subdued’ outlook for housing market as rate hike raises borrowing costs,” October 28, 2026; CMT News (Bloomberg), “Rate hike kicks Canada’s housing market when it’s down,” October 29, 2026.

DESJARDINS FORECASTS A MODEST ONTARIO RECOVERY IN 2027

Desjardins is forecasting that Ontario home sales will rise about 5 per cent in 2027, to roughly 167,000 sales, and that the average price will rise 2.4 per cent to about $825,000. It also expects housing starts to increase by about 6 per cent to roughly 65,000 units, which would still be more than 30 per cent below 2021 and 2022 levels, and average rents to rise about 1.4 per cent. Desjardins senior economist Kari Norman describes Ontario’s market as weak today, even though buyers now have more choice and higher incomes.

The forecast depends on the path of interest rates. Desjardins expects two Bank of Canada rate hikes starting in late October, and Norman notes that higher rates feed directly into variable rate mortgages. U.S. tariffs and oil prices are the other main risks to the forecast.

What this means for your mortgage: a forecast is an estimate, not a result, and this one carries its own rate assumption. Prices and rates both shape the payment on a purchase, so a modest price increase paired with higher rates can mean a bigger monthly cost than the price change alone suggests. For variable rate holders, a hike means more of each payment goes to interest.

THE BANK OF CANADA’S NEW FORECASTING MODEL TRACKS MORTGAGE RENEWALS

The October 28 decision is the first to use the Bank of Canada’s new forecasting model, called Prima. Governor Tiff Macklem introduced it in a September 21 speech, and a Bank staff paper says it entered use in September and will be the primary model for the October 28 rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report. Prima treats mortgage interest costs as their own part of the consumer price index, with changes in market rates feeding through gradually as mortgages renew or refinance. It also gives housing demand, supply and financing a bigger role.

That puts the renewal wave closer to the centre of how the Bank reads inflation. CMHC’s chief economist said at the Mortgage Professionals Canada conference in Calgary that the renewal shock may be easing for some households, but the risk has not gone away. It has moved into lenders’ existing mortgage portfolios, particularly among first-time buyers who have seen prices fall.

What this means for your mortgage: a fixed rate mortgage does not feel a rate change until its term ends, so the full effect arrives at renewal. The renewal payment depends on your balance, the rate you are offered at the time, and your amortization. The Bank is now building that lag into its forecasts, and your maturity date is the starting point for knowing where you stand.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you have a variable rate, a hike on Wednesday would mean more of your payment goes to interest. If you have an adjustable rate, your payment would go up. If you’re buying or renewing on a fixed rate, brokers are noting that lenders have already adjusted pricing upward as bond yields have risen.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: CMT News / Bloomberg (October 19, 2026); Canadian Mortgage Professional (October 17 to 22, 2026); CMT News / The Canadian Press (October 21, 2026); Bank of Canada staff analytical paper 2026-47, Prima overview; Desjardins; CMHC; Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada

FEWER CANADIANS ARE CHOOSING THE FIVE-YEAR FIXED THAN AT ANY POINT SINCE 2013

A National Bank of Canada research note by senior economist Daren King found that fixed terms of five years or longer made up just 8.8 per cent of new mortgages in July. That is the lowest share in the data going back to 2013. The other 91.2 per cent were a mix of shorter fixed terms and variable rates.

According to the report, borrowers favoured shorter fixed terms in 2023 and 2024, and those terms then lost ground to variable rates in 2025 and 2026. CMHC data shows variable rates fell below fixed rates in late 2025 for the first time since 2022, and by February variable made up 42 per cent of mortgages extended by chartered banks. The National Bank report notes that the more households choose short terms or variable rates, the faster Bank of Canada decisions reach their mortgage payments.

What this means for your mortgage: the term and the rate type decide how soon your payment responds to rate changes. A variable rate or a shorter term gives you a payment that adjusts sooner, and a shorter term also means you renew sooner. A longer fixed term gives you a set rate for longer. Each one carries a different kind of risk, and which fits depends on your budget, how much payment change you can absorb, and how long you expect to hold the mortgage.

RENEWING BORROWERS ARE SEEING PAYMENTS RISE BY $375 A MONTH ON AVERAGE

CMHC’s 2026 Mortgage Consumer Survey found that renewing borrowers have seen their monthly payments rise by an average of $375, a figure cited by industry speakers at MortgageFest Canada in Toronto. RBC economist Claire Fan expects household debt service ratios, which measure the share of income going to debt payments, to keep edging higher into 2027 as the last of the pandemic-era low-rate mortgages finish renewing.

What this means for your mortgage: your renewal payment depends on your balance, the new rate and your amortization, and the rate you are offered depends on the bond yield at the time. Looking at the renewal number well before your maturity date, and comparing the offer from your current lender with other options, gives you more room to plan than deciding in the final weeks.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you have a variable rate, what matters is the Bank of Canada, and its next rate decision is October 28. If you are looking for a fixed rate because you’re purchasing or renewing soon, what matters is the bond yield. And if you chose a shorter term, you’ll be renewing sooner.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: CMT News / Bloomberg (October 12, 2026); Canadian Mortgage Professional (October 9, 2026, on the five-year fixed share and on bond yields and household debt service; October 13, 2026, on renewal payment increases); National Bank of Canada; CMHC; RBC Economics; Bank of Canada; Government of Canada five-year bond yield data (closing prices to October 15, 2026); Statistics Canada