CANADA’S HOUSING SHORTAGE HASN’T GONE AWAY

Aled ab Iorwerth, deputy chief economist at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), said this week that the only long-term solution to affordability is a lot more housing supply, built in higher-density forms. He also questioned whether the traditional condo model is the right way to deliver it.

CMHC’s Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report puts Canada’s supply gap at 187,000 to 238,000 homes a year. Edmonton is the only large Canadian market without a gap. In Toronto, family-sized units remain scarce, and a four-bedroom condo downtown is typically over 2,000 square feet and priced accordingly.

Ab Iorwerth tied this year’s price softness to uncertainty in the economy, not to any fundamental change in the housing system. His view is that if trade tensions ease and the economy recovers, affordability would start moving in the wrong direction again.

What this means for your mortgage: softer prices this year are being driven by economic uncertainty rather than a fix to the underlying shortage. For buyers weighing timing, that distinction matters. It’s one reason to base a purchase decision on your own budget and qualifying numbers rather than on a forecast of where prices go next.

RETIREMENT WEALTH STAYS LOCKED IN THE FAMILY HOME

Canada slipped to 21st in the 2026 Natixis Global Retirement Index, down from 10th a decade ago. The index, which ranks 44 countries on 18 indicators, flagged weaker scores for finances in retirement and material wellbeing, including rising household loan delinquencies.

Research from the C.D. Howe Institute found that the net worth of Canadian households aged 55 to 64 rose about 91% after inflation between 1999 and 2023. Most of that gain sits in housing, an asset that is hard to turn into steady retirement income. Meanwhile, a 2026 BMO survey found Canadians now believe they need about $1.7 million to retire comfortably, up from $1.54 million a year earlier. Fewer than half of non-retired Canadians (48%) have a workplace pension, according to a 2026 IG Wealth Management study.

What this means for your mortgage: for homeowners approaching retirement, the home is often the largest asset they have. The main options for using it are selling and downsizing, borrowing against the equity, or carrying a mortgage into retirement, and each comes with different costs and trade-offs. Qualifying also changes once employment income stops, because lenders assess pension and investment income differently. Planning the mortgage side before retirement, rather than after, keeps more of those options open.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you have a variable rate, all eyes are on the October 28 Bank of Canada decision. If you have a fixed rate or you’re renewing soon, bond yields have moved higher over the past month and fixed pricing has followed. And if you’re nearing retirement, how your home fits into your income plan is a mortgage question as much as a financial one.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada; Bloomberg/Canadian Mortgage Trends; Canadian Mortgage Professional; The Canadian Press; Government of Canada 5-year bond yield data; CMHC Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report; Natixis Investment Managers 2026 Global Retirement Index; C.D. Howe Institute; BMO Financial Group; IG Wealth Management; Wealth Professional

TORONTO CONDO BUYERS TURN AWAY FROM THE SMALLEST UNITS

New data from Wahi and Real Property Solutions shows GTA condo units under 500 square feet lost 12.2% of their value between 2020 and 2025, more than double the 6.2% decline in larger 500-700 square foot units. Toronto condo sales and prices dipped again in August.

With investor buyers largely absent from the market, first-time end-user buyers are moving away from small microunits toward condo townhouses in the $650,000 to $750,000 range, drawn by more space, bedrooms, and predictable monthly costs, with condo fees in established complexes running around $600 a month.

What this means for your mortgage: if you’re a first-time buyer who assumed a condo townhouse was out of reach, this is a segment worth a second look. The qualifying math and financing path are the same as any purchase, but the value proposition has shifted meaningfully compared to a microunit at a similar price point.

WHAT MORTGAGE RENEWALS LOOK LIKE HEADING INTO YEAR END

The Bank of Canada estimates roughly 60% of outstanding mortgages are renewing across 2025 and 2026 combined, and with the year wrapping up, most of that wave has already worked through the system. For anyone still coming up for renewal in the next few months, the average payment increase on a 2026 renewal has been running around 6%. But for five-year fixed terms locked in near record lows back in 2020 or 2021, that jump can run 15% to 20% instead.

What this means for your mortgage: with fixed rates having climbed again this month, it’s worth knowing which group you fall into well before your renewal date arrives, so there are no surprises when the new payment lands.

WHERE THINGS STAND

Variable rate holders: the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% for a seventh straight meeting, keeping prime rate at 4.45%, but minutes show growing concern over oil-driven inflation, so a hike before year end isn’t off the table. Fixed rate holders and anyone renewing soon: rates have moved higher this month, so it’s worth checking your numbers now. And if your situation has changed and you’re not sure your current mortgage still fits, reach out and we’ll take a look together.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada; US Federal Reserve; Wahi/Real Property Solutions; Canadian Mortgage Professional; Bloomberg/CMT News

SURVEY: CANADIANS FEEL STEADY ON THEIR OWN FINANCES, LESS CONFIDENT ON HOME PRICES

A new Nanos Research survey, conducted for Bloomberg, shows a split in how Canadians are feeling heading into fall. Confidence in personal finances and job security is holding up, with most respondents reporting they feel secure in their jobs. But confidence in the broader economy and in home prices has weakened. Only about a third of respondents now expect home prices in their area to rise over the next six months, down sharply from a month earlier.

Real estate professionals surveyed separately echoed the sentiment, with two in five citing recession worries as the main reason buyers are staying on the sidelines right now.

What this means for your mortgage: buyer hesitation driven by economic uncertainty, rather than affordability itself, tends to keep markets cautious rather than triggering a sharp correction. If you’re financially ready to buy or refinance, the underlying qualifying math hasn’t shifted, sentiment has.

TORONTO CONDO CONSTRUCTION NEARLY GRINDS TO A HALT

New condo construction in Toronto has nearly stopped. According to a new CMHC supply report, only 156 condo units broke ground citywide in the first half of 2026, compared to a ten-year average of roughly 7,000 units a year. High construction costs, difficult presale financing, and weak condo demand are behind the slowdown.

CMHC’s warning is that today’s softer market is masking a bigger problem. If building doesn’t pick back up, the city risks a much sharper supply shortage once buyer demand returns, which could put renewed upward pressure on prices down the road.

What this means for your mortgage: today’s construction slowdown doesn’t affect current buyers directly, but it’s a signal worth watching if you’re thinking about the medium-term outlook for condo pricing in Toronto.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you’re comparing fixed rate options or coming up on a renewal, lenders are repricing week to week right now, so it’s worth locking in a rate hold sooner rather than later. If buyer confidence has you second-guessing timing, remember that sentiment and qualifying math are two different things, and if your situation has changed and you’re not sure your current mortgage still fits, reach out and we’ll take a look together.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); Nanos Research/Bloomberg; Canadian Mortgage Professional; Canadian Mortgage Trends

CANADA SHEDS 41,700 JOBS IN AUGUST

Statistics Canada reported that the economy lost 41,700 jobs in August. The national unemployment rate held at 6.4%, but the losses were concentrated in Ontario and Quebec. Finance, insurance, and real estate shed close to 10,000 positions, and the public sector cut 20,000 jobs, bringing total public sector losses to 78,000 since May. Manufacturing was the one bright spot, adding 22,100 jobs. Layoff rates in export-dependent industries have climbed to 0.9% over the past year, compared with 0.7% elsewhere.

The timing matters: this data came out just two days after the Bank of Canada’s rate hold, and it complicates the case for a near-term hike. Dominique Lapointe of Manulife Investment Management noted that if the Bank’s recent tone was meant to signal an upcoming increase, these numbers suggest that warning may have come too early. A weaker labour market, particularly one concentrated in trade-exposed sectors and Ontario specifically, gives the Bank another reason to stay patient.

What this means for your mortgage: Softer job numbers generally take pressure off the Bank to raise rates, which is good news if you’re on variable or planning to renew into one. It doesn’t change anything about the current hold, but it’s a data point worth watching if you’re deciding between fixed and variable for an upcoming purchase or renewal.

GTA HOME SALES FALL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SIX MONTHS

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 5,057 home sales in the GTA in August, down 2.1% year over year and the first decline after a five-month run of gains. The average price of a home sold across the GTA, all types combined, fell 2.7% to $993,410, only the second time this year it has dipped below $1 million. The composite benchmark price fell 4.5% year over year to roughly $931,200, with York Region down 6.2%, the City of Toronto down 3.7%, and Halton down 3%. New listings fell 14.1% and active listings fell 11.3%, while detached and semi-detached sales held up better than townhouses and condos.

TRREB’s Jason Mercer pointed to trade war anxiety, not affordability, as the main thing keeping buyers on the sidelines this month. Buyers are worried about what tariffs could mean for inflation and borrowing costs down the road, and that uncertainty is outweighing the fact that prices and the five-year fixed rate, holding around 4.8%, haven’t moved much either way.

What this means for your mortgage: The average price across the GTA is back under $1 million, and tighter listings are keeping the market from tipping too far in either direction. If you’ve been waiting for a clearer entry point, this is close to it, though buyers should still expect the same qualifying math as before, since rates themselves haven’t moved.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you have a variable rate product, mortgage or HELOC, nothing changes for you this month. If you’re comparing fixed rate options or coming up on a renewal, it’s worth locking in a rate hold, fixed rates have been slowly rising since the end of February. And if things have changed for you and you’re not sure your current mortgage still fits your situation, reach out and we’ll take a look together.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada; Statistics Canada; Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB); Canadian Mortgage Professional; Bloomberg/CMT News; Ratehub.ca