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Canada Loses Over 68,000 Jobs Ahead of the Bank of Canada Decision, GTA Condo Sales Fall Faster in the Suburbs, and Buyers Weigh 30-Year Amortizations – Mortgage Minute October 9, 2026

Simon Browning — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 15:58:52 +0000

CANADA LOSES OVER 68,000 JOBS AS THE BANK OF CANADA DECISION NEARS

Statistics Canada reported that employment fell by 68,300 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5 per cent from 6.4 per cent. The public sector accounted for the bulk of the losses, with education and health care and social assistance down by a combined 58,400 jobs. Manufacturing lost another 12,700. Total employment is now down 41,200 since December 2025, which erases all of the job growth Canada had seen so far this year.

The report lands ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision on October 28. The Bank is dealing with two problems that pull in opposite directions. Inflation was 3 per cent in August, above the Bank’s 2 per cent target, which is an argument for raising rates. A weakening job market is an argument for holding off, because higher rates slow the economy down further. Today’s report adds weight to that second argument without settling the question.

What this means for your mortgage: variable rates follow prime, which is currently 4.45 per cent. A quarter-point increase on October 28 would take prime to 4.70 per cent, and variable-rate payments, or the share of the payment going to interest, would follow. Fixed rates do not change for existing mortgages until renewal. Lenders also qualify borrowers on income, so employment stability is part of the picture, particularly for households in sectors where cuts are being reported.

GTA CONDO SALES FALL FASTER IN THE SUBURBS THAN IN THE CITY

TRREB reported 5,040 GTA home sales in September, down 9 per cent from a year ago. New listings fell 14.4 per cent to 16,500. The composite benchmark price fell 4.7 per cent to $917,600, and the average selling price fell 5.1 per cent to $1,006,409.

The pullback was uneven. In TRREB’s reporting, the 416 is the City of Toronto and the 905 is the surrounding regions. Condo apartment sales fell 12.4 per cent in the 905, compared with 5.5 per cent in the 416. Detached sales followed the same pattern, down 10.3 per cent in the 905 and 4.0 per cent in the 416. Average condo prices fell 6.1 per cent in the 416 and 12.0 per cent in the 905, bringing the GTA-wide condo average to $605,257, down 7.7 per cent from a year earlier.

What this means for your mortgage: a lower purchase price means a smaller loan, but in a falling market an appraisal can come in below the price you agreed to pay. When that happens, the lender bases the mortgage on the lower number, and the buyer is responsible for covering the difference. Knowing how your lender handles appraisals, and how much cash you have available if one comes in short, is part of planning a purchase in this kind of market.

BUYERS WEIGH COMPROMISES, INCLUDING 30-YEAR AMORTIZATIONS

REMAX Canada’s Fall 2026 Housing Market Outlook, which included a Leger survey of 1,532 adults conducted in July, found that 65 per cent of Canadians are willing to make compromises to buy a home. Sixty-three per cent said they would relocate, and 31 per cent would live farther from city centres. On the financial side, 41 per cent would cut discretionary spending, and 24 per cent said they would extend their mortgage amortization to 30 years to lower their monthly payment.

REMAX also reports that sales fell year over year in 81 per cent of the local markets it analyzed, and about 32 per cent of markets are now buyer-favourable, up from 15.2 per cent a year ago. That gives buyers more time to compare options and negotiate than they had in recent years.

What this means for your mortgage: the amortization is the total time over which a mortgage is paid off, separate from the term. A 30-year amortization lowers the monthly payment, but it means more interest paid overall and slower equity building. It is also worth knowing that choosing a 30-year amortization today does not lock you into paying over 30 years. It can be shortened later, typically through prepayments or higher payments, subject to your lender’s terms, once your budget allows. Whether a longer amortization makes sense depends on your budget and how long you plan to carry the mortgage, and it helps to look at total interest, not just the monthly payment.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you have a variable rate, the October 28 decision matters directly. A hike would raise prime from 4.45 per cent to 4.70 per cent, and your payment would follow. If you have a fixed rate, nothing changes until you renew. If you’re buying with a 30-year amortization in mind, it’s worth looking at the total interest, not just the monthly payment.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: CMT News / Bloomberg (October 9, 2026); Canadian Mortgage Professional (October 2, 6, 7 and 8, 2026); Statistics Canada; TRREB; REMAX Canada Fall 2026 Housing Market Outlook; Bank of Canada

Banks Continue to Raise Fixed Rates, Toronto Condos Hit Their Best Affordability Since 2017, and Ontario Home Sales Are Forecast to Fall – Mortgage Minute October 2, 2026

Simon Browning — Sat, 03 Oct 2026 14:32:20 +0000

BANKS CONTINUE TO RAISE FIXED RATES AS THE BANK OF CANADA DECISION NEARS

Banks have been raising fixed mortgage rates since March, and the increases are continuing. Lenders including CIBC and TD have raised select three and five-year fixed rates as the Government of Canada five-year bond yield, the benchmark lenders use to price five-year fixed mortgages, has climbed from about 2.6 per cent before the conflict in the Middle East to more than 3.7 per cent.

Variable pricing sits well below fixed. In some cases, variable rates are currently priced at least three-quarters of a percentage point below comparable fixed rates, though the gap varies by lender and product.

Expectations for the Bank of Canada are divided. Overnight swap markets are pricing in roughly a full percentage point of hikes over the next 12 months, which Dave Larock of Integrated Mortgage Planners has called aggressive. Manulife Investment Management expects quarter-point increases at both the October 28 and December 9 meetings, while TD Economics argues the case for hiking is not compelling. RBC Economics expects the Bank to hold through the end of the year and begin raising rates in early 2027. The policy rate has been 2.25 per cent since October 2025, with prime at 4.45 per cent.

Two data points come first. Statistics Canada releases the September inflation report on October 19, and the Bank of Canada announces its next decision on October 28. A Bloomberg survey of economists has inflation averaging 3.0 per cent over the next six months, with a return to the 2 per cent target not expected until the third quarter of 2027.

What this means for your mortgage: variable rates follow prime, so they move when the Bank moves, and depending on the product, either the payment or the share of it going to interest changes. Fixed rates follow the bond market, which has already been moving. For a renewal in the coming months, the question is less which way rates go than how much payment movement a household can absorb. A variable rate offers a lower starting point with the risk of higher costs if prime rises. A fixed rate offers certainty at a higher starting point. That trade-off depends on your budget and timeline.

TORONTO CONDOS REACH THEIR BEST AFFORDABILITY SINCE 2017, BUT ARE SELLING MORE SLOWLY

RBC Economics’ latest housing affordability report shows Toronto improved by 1.2 percentage points in the second quarter to 64.1 per cent, the largest gain among major cities. The measure is the share of median pre-tax household income needed to cover mortgage payments, property taxes and utilities. The condo segment drove the improvement and reached its most affordable level since 2017. Toronto remains the second least affordable major market in the country, behind Vancouver at 83.9 per cent.

Separate data from Wahi shows GTA condos averaged 36 days to sell in the second quarter of 2026, up from 32 days a year earlier and under 14 days in early 2022. Detached homes sell in roughly nine days. Wahi economist Ryan McLaughlin attributes the slowdown to investors leaving the market, lower federal immigration targets and the ongoing trade war, with inventory near historic highs.

RBC’s authors caution that the improvement may not last. Upward pressure on long-term interest rates, and the likelihood of Bank of Canada hikes next year, could put ownership costs on the rise again after dropping significantly since 2024. Rising bond yields affect fixed rates, and rate hikes affect variable rates.

What this means for your mortgage: a lower purchase price reduces the amount borrowed, but the monthly payment also depends on the rate. At the same price, a higher rate means a higher payment. Longer selling times can also stretch the gap between a pre-approval and an accepted offer, so it helps to know how long your rate hold lasts and what happens if rates move before closing.

TD CUTS ITS FORECAST, EXPECTING ONTARIO HOME SALES TO FALL 3 PER CENT THIS YEAR

TD Economics has lowered its Canadian housing outlook, now expecting national resales to fall 5.3 per cent in 2026, a deeper drop than the 1.8 per cent decline it forecast previously. It points to the Government of Canada five-year bond yield, which was up about 90 basis points from a year earlier by mid-September and has kept fixed mortgage rates elevated.

For Ontario, TD expects home sales to fall 3.0 per cent in 2026, then rebound 7.4 per cent in 2027, the strongest projected recovery in the country. Ontario prices are forecast to decline 2.6 per cent in 2026 and rise 0.6 per cent in 2027. TD deputy chief economist Derek Burleton said five-year yields are likely to stay elevated longer than previously expected, with room to pull back probably not until next year.

TD’s forecast assumes the Bank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25 per cent through 2027. That differs from the economists in the first story who expect hikes, a reminder that forecasts depend on their assumptions.

What this means for your mortgage: sales and price forecasts rest on where bond yields and the policy rate go, and nobody knows that in advance. A forecast is a reasonable input, but a purchase or renewal decision is better built on your own budget, your qualifying numbers and the payment you are comfortable carrying.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you’re on a variable rate, the October 19 inflation report comes right before the Bank of Canada’s October 28 announcement. If you’re renewing, expect fixed pricing to look different than it did a month ago. If you’re buying, lower condo prices only help if the monthly payment holds.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Canadian Mortgage Trends (Jared Lindzon, October 1, 2026); CMT News / Bloomberg (September 25, 2026); Canadian Mortgage Professional (September 24, 25, 29 and 30, 2026); RBC Economics; Wahi; TD Economics; Statistics Canada

Bank of Canada Warns Against Waiting Too Long on Rate Hikes, Canada’s Housing Shortage Persists, and Retirement Wealth Stays Locked in Homes – Mortgage Minute September 25, 2026

Simon Browning — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 19:35:20 +0000

BANK OF CANADA WARNS AGAINST WAITING TOO LONG ON RATE HIKES

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the Bank does not want to be late raising interest rates if inflation proves stubborn. Speaking in Halifax on September 21, he said that moving too slowly would likely mean raising rates more quickly, and by more, than if the Bank had acted earlier.

Inflation has held near 3%, mostly because of higher gas prices, and Macklem said he expects it to edge up in the coming months if oil stays near $100 a barrel. At the same time, he warned that new U.S. tariffs could cut fourth-quarter economic growth roughly in half, to below 1%. The Bank’s policy rate remains at 2.25%, with prime at 4.45%.

Markets have shifted quickly. Before the September 2 decision, the odds of a hold were 94%. Markets now treat the October 28 decision as a coin flip. Economists at RBC and Desjardins still expect the Bank to hold for the rest of the year and raise rates in early 2027. The Bank will also debut a new forecasting model, called Prima, in its October Monetary Policy Report to help separate temporary inflation pressures from lasting ones.

Fixed rates are not waiting for the Bank. The five-year Government of Canada bond yield, the benchmark lenders use to price five-year fixed mortgages, rose from about 3.28% on August 24 to about 3.65% on September 25, touching 3.72% along the way.

What this means for your mortgage: variable rates move with the Bank of Canada, so October 28 is the date variable-rate holders are watching. Fixed rates follow the bond market, and that market has already moved higher over the past month. If you are renewing or buying in the months ahead, the fixed rate available to you is being shaped now, not on October 28.

CANADA’S HOUSING SHORTAGE HASN’T GONE AWAY

Aled ab Iorwerth, deputy chief economist at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), said this week that the only long-term solution to affordability is a lot more housing supply, built in higher-density forms. He also questioned whether the traditional condo model is the right way to deliver it.

CMHC’s Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report puts Canada’s supply gap at 187,000 to 238,000 homes a year. Edmonton is the only large Canadian market without a gap. In Toronto, family-sized units remain scarce, and a four-bedroom condo downtown is typically over 2,000 square feet and priced accordingly.

Ab Iorwerth tied this year’s price softness to uncertainty in the economy, not to any fundamental change in the housing system. His view is that if trade tensions ease and the economy recovers, affordability would start moving in the wrong direction again.

What this means for your mortgage: softer prices this year are being driven by economic uncertainty rather than a fix to the underlying shortage. For buyers weighing timing, that distinction matters. It’s one reason to base a purchase decision on your own budget and qualifying numbers rather than on a forecast of where prices go next.

RETIREMENT WEALTH STAYS LOCKED IN THE FAMILY HOME

Canada slipped to 21st in the 2026 Natixis Global Retirement Index, down from 10th a decade ago. The index, which ranks 44 countries on 18 indicators, flagged weaker scores for finances in retirement and material wellbeing, including rising household loan delinquencies.

Research from the C.D. Howe Institute found that the net worth of Canadian households aged 55 to 64 rose about 91% after inflation between 1999 and 2023. Most of that gain sits in housing, an asset that is hard to turn into steady retirement income. Meanwhile, a 2026 BMO survey found Canadians now believe they need about $1.7 million to retire comfortably, up from $1.54 million a year earlier. Fewer than half of non-retired Canadians (48%) have a workplace pension, according to a 2026 IG Wealth Management study.

What this means for your mortgage: for homeowners approaching retirement, the home is often the largest asset they have. The main options for using it are selling and downsizing, borrowing against the equity, or carrying a mortgage into retirement, and each comes with different costs and trade-offs. Qualifying also changes once employment income stops, because lenders assess pension and investment income differently. Planning the mortgage side before retirement, rather than after, keeps more of those options open.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you have a variable rate, all eyes are on the October 28 Bank of Canada decision. If you have a fixed rate or you’re renewing soon, bond yields have moved higher over the past month and fixed pricing has followed. And if you’re nearing retirement, how your home fits into your income plan is a mortgage question as much as a financial one.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada; Bloomberg/Canadian Mortgage Trends; Canadian Mortgage Professional; The Canadian Press; Government of Canada 5-year bond yield data; CMHC Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report; Natixis Investment Managers 2026 Global Retirement Index; C.D. Howe Institute; BMO Financial Group; IG Wealth Management; Wealth Professional

Fed Rate Hike Pushes Canadian Rates Higher, Toronto Condo Buyers Shift to Townhouses, and Renewal Payment Shock Looms – Mortgage Minute September 18, 2026

Simon Browning — Fri, 18 Sep 2026 22:38:58 +0000

US FED HIKE PUSHES CANADIAN FIXED RATES HIGHER

The US Federal Reserve raised its key rate by 25 basis points this week, its first hike since 2023. The move matters here because Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the Bank of Canada’s own policy rate. Higher US rates push US Treasury yields up, and those yields pull Canadian government bond yields along with them, which pushes fixed mortgage rates higher on this side of the border too.

The Bank of Canada held its own rate at 2.25% on September 2 for a seventh straight meeting, keeping prime rate at 4.45%. But minutes from that meeting show officials are watching oil prices closely. Middle East disruptions have pushed crude above $100 a barrel, and officials said sustained high energy costs could force a policy response before they spread into broader inflation. More people now expect the Bank could raise rates before the year is out if that happens.

What this means for your mortgage: if you’re comparing fixed rate options or coming up on a renewal, the bond market has been moving even while the Bank’s own rate sits still. It’s worth locking in a rate hold sooner rather than later to protect your pricing while these shifts play out.

TORONTO CONDO BUYERS TURN AWAY FROM THE SMALLEST UNITS

New data from Wahi and Real Property Solutions shows GTA condo units under 500 square feet lost 12.2% of their value between 2020 and 2025, more than double the 6.2% decline in larger 500-700 square foot units. Toronto condo sales and prices dipped again in August.

With investor buyers largely absent from the market, first-time end-user buyers are moving away from small microunits toward condo townhouses in the $650,000 to $750,000 range, drawn by more space, bedrooms, and predictable monthly costs, with condo fees in established complexes running around $600 a month.

What this means for your mortgage: if you’re a first-time buyer who assumed a condo townhouse was out of reach, this is a segment worth a second look. The qualifying math and financing path are the same as any purchase, but the value proposition has shifted meaningfully compared to a microunit at a similar price point.

WHAT MORTGAGE RENEWALS LOOK LIKE HEADING INTO YEAR END

The Bank of Canada estimates roughly 60% of outstanding mortgages are renewing across 2025 and 2026 combined, and with the year wrapping up, most of that wave has already worked through the system. For anyone still coming up for renewal in the next few months, the average payment increase on a 2026 renewal has been running around 6%. But for five-year fixed terms locked in near record lows back in 2020 or 2021, that jump can run 15% to 20% instead.

What this means for your mortgage: with fixed rates having climbed again this month, it’s worth knowing which group you fall into well before your renewal date arrives, so there are no surprises when the new payment lands.

WHERE THINGS STAND

Variable rate holders: the Bank of Canada held at 2.25% for a seventh straight meeting, keeping prime rate at 4.45%, but minutes show growing concern over oil-driven inflation, so a hike before year end isn’t off the table. Fixed rate holders and anyone renewing soon: rates have moved higher this month, so it’s worth checking your numbers now. And if your situation has changed and you’re not sure your current mortgage still fits, reach out and we’ll take a look together.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada; US Federal Reserve; Wahi/Real Property Solutions; Canadian Mortgage Professional; Bloomberg/CMT News

Bank of Canada Holds Rate for a Seventh Meeting, Canada Sheds 41,700 Jobs, and GTA Home Sales Slip Below $1 Million – Mortgage Minute September 4, 2026

Simon Browning — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 20:20:12 +0000

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS AT 2.25% FOR A SEVENTH STRAIGHT MEETING

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, September 2, the seventh consecutive hold stretching back to December 2025. The decision keeps prime rate at 4.45%. July’s inflation reading, the most recent available, came in at 3.0% year over year, up from 2.8% in June and sitting at the top of the Bank’s comfort range, while core inflation held closer to 2%. The hold arrives against a fresh round of trade tension: the US imposed 50% tariffs on close to $20 billion of Canadian exports in late August, and Ottawa’s counter-tariffs take effect September 8.

The Bank is caught between two problems that pull in opposite directions. Tariffs are adding upward pressure on prices at the same time they’re weighing on growth, so the usual playbook of cutting rates to support the economy is off the table for now. Variable rates and HELOCs are tied directly to the policy rate, so they aren’t moving. Fixed rates work differently: they follow the bond market, not the Bank’s rate, and bond yields have been climbing on their own. The two-year Canadian yield rose to 3.048%, and the 10-year yield has climbed roughly 35 basis points since early summer, pushing fixed mortgage pricing higher even with the policy rate unchanged. Economists are split on what comes next. Some, including BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes and Capital Economics’ Stephen Brown, think a hike as early as December is on the table. Others, including RBC and CIBC, expect the Bank to stay on hold well into 2027.

What this means for your mortgage: If you’re on a variable rate or a HELOC, nothing changes this month, prime stays at 4.45%. If you’re comparing fixed rate options or renewing soon, the bond market has been moving even while the policy rate sits still, so it’s worth locking in a rate hold to protect your pricing. Fixed rates have been slowly rising since the end of February. Lowest five-year fixed rates are sitting around 3.69% to 4.09% depending on the lender and insurability, with five-year variable around 3.35% to 3.50%.

CANADA SHEDS 41,700 JOBS IN AUGUST

Statistics Canada reported that the economy lost 41,700 jobs in August. The national unemployment rate held at 6.4%, but the losses were concentrated in Ontario and Quebec. Finance, insurance, and real estate shed close to 10,000 positions, and the public sector cut 20,000 jobs, bringing total public sector losses to 78,000 since May. Manufacturing was the one bright spot, adding 22,100 jobs. Layoff rates in export-dependent industries have climbed to 0.9% over the past year, compared with 0.7% elsewhere.

The timing matters: this data came out just two days after the Bank of Canada’s rate hold, and it complicates the case for a near-term hike. Dominique Lapointe of Manulife Investment Management noted that if the Bank’s recent tone was meant to signal an upcoming increase, these numbers suggest that warning may have come too early. A weaker labour market, particularly one concentrated in trade-exposed sectors and Ontario specifically, gives the Bank another reason to stay patient.

What this means for your mortgage: Softer job numbers generally take pressure off the Bank to raise rates, which is good news if you’re on variable or planning to renew into one. It doesn’t change anything about the current hold, but it’s a data point worth watching if you’re deciding between fixed and variable for an upcoming purchase or renewal.

GTA HOME SALES FALL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SIX MONTHS

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 5,057 home sales in the GTA in August, down 2.1% year over year and the first decline after a five-month run of gains. The average price of a home sold across the GTA, all types combined, fell 2.7% to $993,410, only the second time this year it has dipped below $1 million. The composite benchmark price fell 4.5% year over year to roughly $931,200, with York Region down 6.2%, the City of Toronto down 3.7%, and Halton down 3%. New listings fell 14.1% and active listings fell 11.3%, while detached and semi-detached sales held up better than townhouses and condos.

TRREB’s Jason Mercer pointed to trade war anxiety, not affordability, as the main thing keeping buyers on the sidelines this month. Buyers are worried about what tariffs could mean for inflation and borrowing costs down the road, and that uncertainty is outweighing the fact that prices and the five-year fixed rate, holding around 4.8%, haven’t moved much either way.

What this means for your mortgage: The average price across the GTA is back under $1 million, and tighter listings are keeping the market from tipping too far in either direction. If you’ve been waiting for a clearer entry point, this is close to it, though buyers should still expect the same qualifying math as before, since rates themselves haven’t moved.

WHERE THINGS STAND

If you have a variable rate product, mortgage or HELOC, nothing changes for you this month. If you’re comparing fixed rate options or coming up on a renewal, it’s worth locking in a rate hold, fixed rates have been slowly rising since the end of February. And if things have changed for you and you’re not sure your current mortgage still fits your situation, reach out and we’ll take a look together.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada; Statistics Canada; Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB); Canadian Mortgage Professional; Bloomberg/CMT News; Ratehub.ca

Canada Adds 75,000 Jobs, GTA Listings Tighten, and Mortgage Arrears Hit a Decade High – Mortgage Minute August 7, 2026

Simon Browning — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 16:03:06 +0000

CANADA ADDS 75,000 JOBS, MAKING A RATE CUT LESS LIKELY

Statistics Canada reported the economy added 75,000 jobs in July, far outpacing forecasts of roughly 15,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.4 percent.

A jobs report this strong gives the Bank of Canada little reason to cut. The overnight rate has been held at 2.25 percent for six consecutive decisions, and this data reinforces that stance heading into the next announcement on September 2.

What this means for your mortgage: if you’re on a variable rate or carrying a HELOC, don’t plan around a rate drop this year. Today’s rate is likely the rate you’ll be living with for a while yet.

GTA NEW LISTINGS FELL 18 PERCENT IN JULY WHILE SALES HELD STEADY

New listings across the GTA fell 17.8 percent year over year in July, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, while total sales dipped just 0.9 percent. Active listings also declined, down 12.1 percent. The average selling price still came in lower year over year, down 4.5 percent to just over $1 million.

With fewer homes coming onto the market but sales holding relatively steady, the balance is beginning to shift back toward sellers, even though pricing hasn’t caught up yet.

What this means for your mortgage: if you’re planning to buy this fall, tightening inventory could mean less room to negotiate on price than earlier in the year, even with rates unchanged.

MORTGAGE ARREARS HIT A DECADE HIGH, WITH ONTARIO NOW LEADING THE COUNTRY

The Canadian Bankers Association reported 14,061 bank mortgages were 90 days or more past due in May, the highest count in more than a decade, up 27.2 percent from a year earlier. Ontario’s delinquency rate has climbed to 0.23 percent, surpassing the national average for the first time since at least 2012.

This is squarely a renewal story. Pandemic-era buyers who locked in five-year fixed rates in 2021 are now renewing into materially higher payments, and that pressure is showing up most clearly here in Ontario.

What this means for your mortgage: if your renewal is coming up in the next year, don’t wait for the letter to land. Look at your numbers now, while there’s time to plan.

WHERE THINGS STAND

Variable rate holders, expect the Bank of Canada to stay parked at 2.25 percent on September 2. Anyone renewing this year, take a hard look at your numbers before signing, the arrears data shows real pressure building.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: CTV News / The Canadian Press, August 7, 2026 – “Canada adds 75,000 jobs in July as unemployment rate ticks down”; Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 6, 2026 – “GTA listings fall as housing market tightens in July”; Canadian Mortgage Professional, August 4, 2026 – “Canada’s mortgage arrears near a decade high”

Bank of Canada Holds at 2.25%, Toronto Mortgage Arrears Climb, and Ontario’s HST Rebate Boosts New Builds – Mortgage Minute July 17, 2026

Simon Browning — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 21:11:15 +0000

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS AT 2.25%, BUT FIXED RATE PRICING IS DRIFTING

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on July 15, the sixth consecutive hold since the cutting cycle ended last October. Prime rate stays at 4.45%. The decision was widely expected. Annual inflation reached 3.2% in May, above the Bank’s comfort zone, driven mostly by higher gas prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East. The Bank is treating that as a temporary pressure rather than a reason to move.

What’s changed is on the fixed rate side. Government bond yields, which are what lenders use to price fixed mortgages, have edged higher over the past few weeks on the same oil price story that’s been driving inflation. That’s a separate mechanism from the Bank’s policy rate, and it moves independently.

What this means for your mortgage: if you’re on a variable rate or a HELOC, nothing changes this week, since variable and HELOC rates track prime. If you’re shopping a fixed rate or coming up on a renewal, the pricing environment has gotten slightly less favourable than earlier this year. Worth a conversation before you lock anything in.

TORONTO MORTGAGE ARREARS CLIMB AS ONTARIO OVERTAKES THE NATIONAL AVERAGE

Mortgage arrears across Canada have climbed to 0.28% of all outstanding mortgages, up from a pandemic-era low of 0.14%. Ontario’s delinquency rate has now overtaken the national average for the first time in more than a decade. In Toronto specifically, the rate climbed from 0.15% to 0.24% year over year, an increase of roughly 60%.

The context matters here. Most borrowers who locked in ultra-low rates back in 2020 and 2021 have already gone through their renewal. Economists tracking this data point out that the sharpest part of the payment shock may already be behind us rather than still ahead.

What this means for your mortgage: if you’re coming up on a renewal and you’re worried about your number, this is exactly the kind of situation where getting ahead of it, rather than waiting for the renewal letter, makes a real difference.

ONTARIO’S HST REBATE IS PULLING BUYERS BACK INTO TORONTO NEW BUILDS

Ontario’s removal of the 13% HST on new homes, worth up to $130,000 on homes up to $1.5 million, is starting to show up in new home buyer interest across the GTA, particularly for buyers who previously wouldn’t have qualified for the rebate because their new home was priced over $1 million.

Brokers are noting a pickup in interest, particularly toward pre-construction, since it stretches out the time buyers have to save their down payment while locking in today’s price.

What this means for your mortgage: if a new build is on your radar, the rebate changes the cash you need at closing, which can change what you qualify for and when you should start the mortgage conversation.

WHERE THINGS STAND

Variable rate holders, nothing changes this week. If you’re renewing soon, plan early. If a new build is on your radar, it’s worth running the numbers. And if you renewed in 2023 or 2024 at a higher rate, today’s environment makes refinancing worth a second look.

Call or text 249-480-1249. HumberBayMortgages.ca.

Simon Browning | Mortgage Agent Level 2 | BRX Mortgage 13463

Sources: Bank of Canada, Canadian Mortgage Professional, Desjardins Economic Studies